Ravenwood - 11/01/02 09:25 AM
As you may have already heard, the GNP grew by 3% last quarter, and the stock market grew by 10% in October. Those are definately not recession numbers, although you wouldn't know it if you read the mainstream press.
The New York Times is in liberal high gear, right before the election. They continue to downplay any economic recovery:
Economy Grew at 3.1% in 3rd Quarter, Slower Than Expected -- NY Times, October 31, 2002.I have been telling my friends and family for the past few months that the economic outlook will turn around after the election. It looks like I may be right.Unemployment Rate Rose to 5.7% in October -- NY Times, November 1, 2002.
It reminds me of the 1992 election, when The Times and the Washington Post echoed Clinton's statement that we were in the worst recession since the Great Depression. We weren't in a recession at the time; the most recent recession had ended in March, 1991, and every quarter since then had shown economic growth. Further, the recession that ended March, 1991, was pretty mild by historic standards. But God forbid The Times report good news when a Republican was President.
The economy right is faltering, but recovering. It's a familiar cycle: earnings drop, then capital investment drops because companies don't have enough money to invest, then unemployment rises as workers get laid off and fewer companies hire. After a time, earnings rise again, then capital investment rises, then unemployment drops. Right now, earnings have been rising, as several big companies have reported strong year-over-year earnings. And capital investment is showing signs of awakening. To sum up: relax, folks, we've seen the worst of it.
Posted by: Steve at November 1, 2002 10:24 AMThey ignore, of course, that the unemployment reached a high of 5.9%. It's still slightly down overall.
Posted by: Owen Courrèges at November 1, 2002 12:41 PM(c) Ravenwood and Associates, 1990 - 2014
