Ravenwood - 04/13/05 06:30 AM
CNN/Money reports that rising interest rates will burst the housing bubble and plunge our economy into despair.
Mortgage debt now stands at record levels, having risen $1 trillion last year alone, and dwarfing other types of consumer debt, like credit cards. Homeowners have turned the equity they have in their homes into a virtual ATM, supplementing their household cash flow through additional mortgage borrowing. [...]At least CNN/Money is listening to real economists now, and not Billy Joel.Rising interest rates will not only raise monthly payments on millions of loans. It could close that ATM for many households unwilling to refinance again at higher rates. And without that ready source of cash, there will be less money to spend on everything from clothing to appliances. [...]
Rising rates should start to hit consumer spending in a big way by this summer, according to economists.
"We definitely have to figure that once tax filing season is done and tax refunds are cashed, we do expect consumer spending will slow down in the second half of this year," said John Silvia, chief economist for Wachovia Securities. "I don't see any way to fudge that (higher financing costs). You're not getting the employment gains or wage and income gains to offset that."
UPDATE: Oh wait, CNN/Money reports the economy is already in the dumps after all.
Money is a ticket in line to say what the economy does next. If there's too many people saying what the economy should do at once, more than the economy can do, then they bid against each other and bid the prices up, and you get inflation. So the Fed sells some debt, and burns the money. Now there's fewer people in line, just as they wanted.
This shows up as ``increased interest rates'' as if it is a _problem_. It's not a problem. It's exactly what's supposed to happen. Some consumption that had been replacing investment is told to bug off for a while. This is presented as hurtful to the economy!
The other way to do it is central planning, and empty shelves.
Posted by: Ron Hardin at April 13, 2005 10:49 AM(c) Ravenwood and Associates, 1990 - 2014