CNN reports the latest poll shows that "Support lags for Social Security plan". This is despite their admission that "81 percent of respondents believed that the program would need major changes in the coming years." So if more than 8 out of 10 people think that Social Security needs "major changes", why does support lag for changing Social Security?

Well, let's examine it:

Forty-five percent of respondents said that changes would be needed in a year or two and 36 percent said those changes would be needed within 10 years.

Assuming that these are mutually exclusive responses to the same question, this is the 81% that say Social Security needs changes.

But 46 percent said they would be better off if Congress did not pass a plan this year, while 27 percent said a plan favored by most Republicans would be better and 22 percent favored a plan supported by most Democrats.

That's 49% who support changes favored by either Republicans or Democrats, compared to 46% who would rather wait at least a year. Despite 22 percent favoring the unspecified Democrat plan (they have one?), that doesn't really mean that there is no support for changes. After all, doing nothing is not a plan.

Here is where the poll is most dubious, and it is what made CNN deduct that support for Social Security reform lags:

Thirty-five percent of respondents said they approved of Bush's handling of Social Security, while 58 percent said they disapproved.

Set aside the fact that even fair and balanced polls are essentially mob rule and should be ignored. This is the oldest trick in the polling book. Notice that the answers have nothing to do with supporting Social Security reform. Asked this question, a person might disapprove of Bush's handling because he thinks Bush is trying to do too much, OR because he thinks Bush is trying to do too little. Personally, I think Bush isn't doing enough. He needs to be out there more selling a specific plan. And that plan should cover more than a paltry 2%. Personally, I think that a 15% contribution to your 401K should exempt you from Social Security.

Basically, I disapprove of the way Bush is handling the issue, AND I support reform. But CNN would conclude that I support the "do nothing" approach.

The Washington Post tries this technique all the time, most notably in the run-up to the innauguration.

Just about every single question is worded, "Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is [doing whatever]". The problem with this type of question is that it is not specific enough. On the question of Iraq, liberals may think Bush is being too much of a hardliner while conservatives think he's being too soft on the terrorists. Both could easily cast their vote for "disapprove".

The same could be said for the economy, or education, of judicial appointments. As a conservative, I don't think Bush has done enough to make tax cuts permenent. I also think we spend way too much on government schools and that Bush isn't pushing his judicial appoints through effectively. I could easily vote "disapprove" in all three of those categories.

And such is the problem with polls. Next time a newsman says "I have a poll", tell them to shoved it up their ass.